In a reply, the original authors thanked Altenberg for his correspondence and confirmed Altenberg’s calculations that the pre-travel test reduced exposure of the destination population by only 20%, while the addition of a five-day quarantine and second test reduced the exposure by 82%. The authors had reported a 70% reduction in exposure of the destination population, but a careful examination of the counting methods by Altenberg showed the reduction to be closer to 83%. The original paper also simulated a stronger travel protocol with a three-day pre-test, five days of quarantine at the destination and a second negative PCR test. The exposure to the destination population from seven-day travelers was about 60% of the exposure from 14-day travelers. Other findingsĪltenberg analyzed the exposure from short-stay visitors, and found that the simulation showed that the pre-travel test produced a 27% reduction in exposure to the destination from seven-day visitors compared to travelers with no pre-test and no quarantine. 80% of the exposure of infected travelers would occur undetected. ![]() To calculate the exposure to the destination population, Altenberg utilized the figures in the original paper and found that the three-day pre-travel test produced only a 20% reduction in how much the destination population was exposed to COVID-infected travelers. But those infectious days would not expose the destination population. The undetected 64% of infected travelers tested negative, but would become contagious once they arrived at their destination.Īltenberg noticed that in arriving at the 36% figure the paper counted travelers who became infectious between the pre-test and the day of travel. airline travelers, found that only some 36% of COVID infected passengers would be detected by the three-day pre-travel test. The original research, based on a simulation of 100,000 U.S. ![]() The original research and update was based on pre-Delta variants and did not address vaccinations so the effect of testing vaccinated travelers is not included.Īltenberg published the correspondence piece addressing a simulation study in The Lancet Infectious Diseases from March 22. The Hawaiʻi Safe Travels pre-testing protocol may be detecting only 20% of COVID-19 infected travelers, according to an update published on September 15 in The Lancet Infectious Diseases by University of Hawaiʻi at Mānoa Department of Mathematics Adjunct Professor Lee Altenberg.
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